Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, Wuhan will record a daily high temperature at Tianhe International Airport Station, with settlement determined by which range contains that reading in degrees Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing this contract as effectively impossible, though the specific temperature range in question is not disclosed in the market description, making direct assessment of that consensus difficult.

Wuhan's July climate presents a consistent pattern: the city experiences peak summer heat during this month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32–38°C. Data from prior years shows that temperatures exceeding 40°C occur occasionally but remain uncommon for mid-July specifically, whilst readings below 30°C are rare. The 0% probability may reflect either an extremely narrow or implausibly high temperature threshold embedded in the resolution criteria, or it may indicate minimal trading activity and liquidity rather than genuine market conviction about weather outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should note that seasonal forecasts for East Asia in early July 2026 will become available from meteorological agencies by late June, providing baseline expectations for regional heat patterns. The Wuhan Tianhe station's historical record, accessible via Weather Underground, offers the precise settlement mechanism; any divergence between sportsbook weather lines (if available) and this market's pricing would indicate either information asymmetry or structural differences in how temperature ranges are defined across platforms. Current illiquidity at 0% suggests this contract may lack sufficient trader interest to establish meaningful cross-platform comparison.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.