Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Tianhe International Airport Station and reported through Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the highest reading recorded that day in degrees Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing this as an outcome with negligible likelihood, though the specific temperature range underpinning that assessment remains unclear from the stated odds alone.

August temperatures in Wuhan historically cluster in the 32–37°C range, with occasional peaks exceeding 38°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical climate and urban heat island effect make extreme readings plausible but not dominant. Comparable August days from 2015–2024 show that readings above 40°C occur roughly once per decade in this region, whilst temperatures below 30°C are exceptionally rare. The 0% probability currently displayed suggests the market may be pricing against an unusually high or unusually low threshold, rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about typical summer conditions.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature patterns. The East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and any tropical cyclone activity affecting central China could materially shift peak temperatures. Weather Underground's historical data quality for Wuhan Tianhe has been consistent, though traders should verify the specific Daily Observations methodology used, as discrepancies between summary highs and granular observations occasionally occur during rapid temperature swings or instrument transitions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.