Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for June shows daily highs typically falling between 12°C and 17°C (54°F to 62°F), rarely dipping below 10°C or exceeding 19°C [1]. Current crowd-implied probability for a “high temperature” outcome sits at 0% YES, with the market overwhelmingly pricing 11°C as the frontrunner at 100% [2][3]. This stark divergence from historical norms suggests traders are betting on an unusually cold day, possibly influenced by the current light rain and 10°C reading observed this afternoon [7].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s real-time observations for NZWN, particularly wind speed and cloud cover, which can suppress daytime heating [8]. The average June wind speed remains steady at 13.9 mph, but today’s gusts hit 24 mph from the south-south-west, a strong cooling factor [1]. While no formal announcements are scheduled, the persistent rain and rising pressure (996mb) point to continued maritime influence limiting temperature spikes [7]. Analyst consensus across platforms like Bitget and PolyInsider aligns with the 11°C outcome, reinforcing the 0% YES probability for higher ranges [5][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.