Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak air temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground history. Current crowd-implied probability for the "Yes" outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market views the specific temperature range in question as virtually impossible. This stark divergence contrasts with Lines.com, where the 11°C contract trades at nearly even odds ($0.48 YES, $0.53 NO), indicating a meaningful disagreement between platforms on the likelihood of moderate warmth.

Historical patterns for Wellington in mid-July show the coldest day typically occurs around 13 July with lows near 6.2°C, while the warmest day in the month often reaches 20.1°C on 31 July [8]. Current observations at the airport show temperatures feeling like 9°C with a moderate southerly breeze and rising pressure, consistent with the cool, stable conditions that dominate the region during this period [3]. The 0% probability aligns with the expectation that the specific range queried falls well outside the typical mid-July distribution, whereas the 11°C line on other platforms reflects a more optimistic view of potential solar heating.

Traders should monitor the hourly forecast for drizzle and wind, which currently persist through the early morning hours and may suppress any temperature spikes [4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, making the late morning cloud cover and wind speed critical dependencies for the final reading. No specific weather announcements are scheduled, but the prevailing northerly-northeasterly flow noted in recent data could shift, altering the thermal profile before the cut-off [3]. The divergence between the 0% Polymarket line and the near-even Lines.com odds suggests a need to verify the exact temperature range definition before committing capital.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.