Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 21 July 2026 will be recorded at the Wellington International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome other than the frontrunner, which is 12°C at 100% implied probability, indicating near-total consensus that temperatures will fall within that band [1].

Historical mid-July weather in Wellington typically sees highs between 8°C and 14°C, with 12°C aligning closely with the long-term median for this period. The current 0% probability on lower or higher ranges mirrors past settlement patterns where extreme deviations from the median are rare in the city’s cool, maritime climate, reinforcing the market’s tight pricing around the expected norm.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as well as short-term forecasts from BBC Weather and AccuWeather, which currently report temperatures near 15°C and 52°F respectively, though these reflect current conditions rather than the day’s peak [2][3]. No major weather announcements or scheduled dependencies are expected to alter the trajectory, but sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could influence the final reading before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.