Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington Airport's highest temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded and resolved against five temperature bands, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome. This is unusual for a weather market during the Southern Hemisphere winter, when July typically sees Wellington's daily highs range between 8–13°C, though extremes occasionally breach these bounds.

Historical data from Wellington Intl Airport shows July temperatures rarely exceed 15°C, with records dating back decades indicating that days surpassing 18°C in mid-winter are exceptionally rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders either view the market as illiquid or expect resolution bands to be positioned such that realistic outcomes fall outside listed ranges. Comparable winter-month temperature markets on prediction platforms typically see modest trading volume, with probabilities distributed across multiple bands rather than concentrated in a single outcome. The absence of any meaningful probability allocation here points to either incomplete market discovery or structural issues with how the bands were constructed.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the New Zealand MetService's 10-day forecasts as mid-July approaches, particularly any anomalous warm-air advection systems that occasionally push winter temperatures upward. Recent Southern Hemisphere weather patterns have shown increased volatility in austral winter conditions. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 14 July, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once actual forecast confidence improves. Wunderground's historical data for NZWN station provides the definitive resolution source, making station-specific conditions—including any local wind or cloud effects—material to final settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.