Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport is forecast to post a modest August high rather than a warm spike, which matters because this market settles on the highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the broader day-high summary. AccuWeather’s current Wellington forecast shows a high of 57°F (about 14°C) on 8 August, with cloudy, breezy conditions and a low of 49°F, while Met Office and BBC weather pages for Wellington are also sitting near 12–12.5°C in the near term.[2][12][15] On the market side, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are effectively pricing this as an outside-range outcome, which is notably more conservative than the weather guidance.

Historically, Wellington in August tends to cluster in the low teens Celsius: AccuWeather’s monthly outlook has daily highs around 53° to 60°F, and WeatherSpark puts August daily highs around 54°F, rarely above 59°F.[1][10] That profile supports reading this contract as a temperature-band bet rather than a binary weather-event trade. In comparison with sportsbook-style lines, the available public forecasts imply a narrow distribution centred close to 12–14°C, so any divergence from the market price is less about an expected heat event and more about whether the station’s recorded maximum lands in a particular Celsius bucket after rounding and observation timing.

For traders, the main catalyst is the intraday evolution of the airport observation itself: cloud, rain and northerly wind can cap the daytime maximum, but a brief clearing or down-slope warming can still lift the recorded high into the next band.[2][11][19] The key dependency is the actual Daily Observations entry for Wellington Intl Airport on Weather Underground, since that is the settlement source and overrides the day summary if they differ.[11][19] No major scheduled announcement drives this contract; it is primarily a live-weather read, so late-morning and early-afternoon updates matter more than headline forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.