Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 21 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across platforms, suggesting traders view no meaningful likelihood of extreme heat on that specific date.

August is Wellington's winter month, with historical daily maximums typically ranging between 11–14°C. The 0% probability reflects this seasonal reality: extreme heat events in southern hemisphere winter are meteorologically implausible without extraordinary atmospheric conditions. For context, Wellington's August record high stands at 20.3°C (set in 1945), an outlier requiring sustained nor'west föhn winds or an unusual subtropical air mass intrusion. Comparable prediction markets on winter temperature extremes in temperate zones consistently price such outcomes near zero, as the seasonal pattern dominates short-term variability.

Traders monitoring this contract should track late July and early August 2026 weather pattern forecasts, particularly any signals of anomalous warmth in the Tasman region. The New Zealand MetService issues extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead; any indication of above-normal temperatures would shift probabilities upward, though substantially elevated heat remains climatologically unlikely. Settlement hinges on precise data sourcing from the Daily Observations table—traders should verify Weather Underground's station reporting methodology, as discrepancies between observation tables and summary sections have occasionally caused resolution disputes on similar weather markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.