Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. The market currently shows zero implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a technical listing issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated feeds occasionally diverge or when intraday peaks occur outside standard reporting windows.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical August maxima typically ranging between 10–14°C at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability across all bins is anomalous given that some outcome must occur; comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi usually show distributed probabilities even for low-likelihood temperature extremes. This suggests the market may be newly listed with minimal trading activity or experiencing a display lag. Traders should verify current order book depth before committing capital.

The primary catalyst is the actual weather system affecting the Wellington region in mid-August 2026. No scheduled meteorological announcements or climate forecasts will alter the settlement mechanism itself, though the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes monthly outlooks that could inform positioning. The key dependency is Weather Underground's data feed integrity; any outage or sensor malfunction at Wellington Intl Airport would trigger resolution delays pending manual verification or alternative official records from the New Zealand Meteorological Service.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.