Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 14 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either extreme uncertainty or a technical issue in crowd pricing, as any given day must produce some measurable high temperature.

August is Wellington's winter month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 11–13 °C at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability across all brackets suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder contract. Comparable winter days at Wellington Airport over the past decade show highs rarely exceeding 15 °C, with sub-10 °C days occurring roughly 20–30% of the time during August. The specificity of using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries matters; discrepancies between these sources have occasionally created resolution disputes on other weather markets, making source verification critical for settlement.

Traders should monitor MetService's 10-day forecast releases in early August 2026, which typically become reliable five to seven days before the target date. Any significant anticyclonic system moving across the lower North Island could push temperatures materially higher than the seasonal norm. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August, creating a hard deadline for observation data; late-afternoon temperature spikes recorded after 12:00 UTC would fall outside the resolution window despite occurring on the calendar date in Wellington local time.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.