Highest temperature in Toronto on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto Pearson International Airport is set to record its peak heat for 16 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a zero per cent chance of any outcome other than the implied baseline. This 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely anticipating a standard mid-summer high rather than an extreme outlier. Historical data from 16 July 2025 shows Toronto endured an extreme heat warning with temperatures pushing well above average, accompanied by air quality alerts that forced public health advisories to limit outdoor exposure for vulnerable groups[1]. Such precedents indicate that while extreme heat events are possible in mid-July, the market’s current pricing reflects a divergence where traders are betting against the specific contract range rather than the general likelihood of warmth.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch real-time forecasts from The Weather Network, which currently lists Pearson’s temperature at 24°C with a 40% probability of precipitation[3]. The primary catalyst remains the official Wunderground daily record for the CYYZ station, which will settle the market at 12:00 UTC on 17 July. Unlike sportsbook lines that often adjust for momentum, prediction markets here react strictly to meteorological data releases, meaning any sudden shift in humidity or cloud cover could alter implied probabilities before the settlement window closes. Analyst consensus on similar July contracts suggests a tendency toward 28–33°C ranges, yet the current 0% line implies a significant disconnect between historical averages and the specific range offered in this instance[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.