Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Today, the crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, yet Lines.com reports a competing market estimating a 38% chance the peak lands exactly in the 27°C bin, revealing a stark divergence between platforms. This discrepancy suggests traders are misaligned on how to interpret the current weather signals versus historical norms for early July in the Kanto region.

Historically, Tokyo Haneda experiences daily highs between 27°C and 30°C in early July, with Met Office forecasts for the coming week showing maximums of 30°C and minimums of 24°C[1]. BBC Weather notes today’s drizzle and gentle breeze have lowered temperatures to 18°C, but July averages typically climb well above this[3]. The 0% implied probability appears overly pessimistic given that July 1 markets previously settled at 27°C with significant volume, indicating the bin is a realistic target rather than an outlier[2].

Traders should monitor the Met Office seven-day forecast updates and any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns that could suppress the peak temperature[1]. AccuWeather’s monthly data for July 2026 projects highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (24°C to 33°C), confirming the 27°C bin remains within the expected range[6]. No immediate weather announcements are scheduled, but the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 7 July 2026 means real-time Wunderground readings will be the final catalyst[4]. The divergence between the 0% crowd view and the 38% market estimate warrants close scrutiny of incoming hourly data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.