Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that determines the resolution of a specific weather prediction contract. While one market currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome for a high-temperature threshold, this stark divergence clashes with the collective view on Polymarket, where traders are pricing a 47% chance for a 26°C peak and a 39% chance for 25°C. Analysts and historical data suggest that mid-July in Tokyo routinely sees temperatures soaring to 36–40°C with humidity exceeding 95%, making the 0% implied probability on the opposing platform appear fundamentally misaligned with regional climate realities.

Historical precedents from recent summers, including Japan’s record-breaking 41.2°C heatwave in Hyogo Prefecture last year, frame the current odds as an outlier rather than a reflection of typical weather patterns. The 2026 July forecast for Haneda already indicates daily highs between 25°C and 33°C (76–91°F), reinforcing that a 25–26°C peak is statistically probable rather than impossible. Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily bulletins and any sudden shifts in regional cloud cover or wind patterns, as these are the primary catalysts that could push temperatures above the threshold. A recent Reuters report on the 2025 national temperature record underscores the volatility of Japanese summer weather, suggesting that waiting for official agency updates before the settlement window closes is a prudent strategy for assessing true market value.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.