Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, traders are betting on the peak temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport, with the current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sitting at 0%. This stark divergence from Polymarket’s frontrunner—27°C at 54%—suggests either a mispriced contract or a platform-specific odds mismatch that Kalshi-style analysts would flag as a key arbitrage opportunity[1].

Historically, early July in Tokyo sees highs between 26°C and 28°C, with Haneda’s daily normal maximum at 28.9°C[9]. Last year, July 4 hit 28°C with 100% market certainty, while July 2 peaked at 24°C[2][3]. The 2026 summer has already broken records, with Tokyo reaching 36.8°C on 1 July—the highest ever for that date[6]. These precedents frame the 0% probability as an outlier, not a consensus.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast updates, issued 3 July at 11:00, which may refine expectations for Haneda’s peak[9]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but humidity levels above 80% and wind speeds under 20 mph could push temperatures higher[5][7]. With settlement ending 12:00 UTC on 5 July, real-time Wunderground data will be the sole resolution source[1]. The odds gap between platforms remains the most actionable signal for cross-market traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.