Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 27 July will be set by the reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever Celsius band contains the day’s peak on Wunderground. On Polymarket, the crowd is currently leaning to **30°C** at **39%**, with **31°C** next at **25%**, so the implied distribution is clustered around the low 30s rather than around either a much cooler or much hotter outcome.[1]

That pricing is broadly in line with Tokyo’s late-July climate, where daytime highs are typically around 30°C to 33°C, but it leaves room for the city’s occasional heat spikes. Comparable summer guidance for Japan notes that late-July Tokyo can reach 35°C to 38°C in hot spells, helped by the urban heat-island effect, which is why the upper bands on this contract cannot be dismissed even if they are not the current favourites.[2][3] The gap between the leading 30°C band and the 31°C band also suggests traders are treating small forecast shifts as meaningful in a market with many adjacent outcomes.[1]

The main catalysts are the usual short-range weather inputs: updated Japanese Meteorological Agency forecasts, any heat advisories for the Tokyo area, and the overnight-to-morning temperature path before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. Because the resolution source is an airport station reading rather than a city-average temperature, coastal winds, cloud cover, and timing of sunshine matter more than broad “Tokyo weather” headlines. No separate sportsbook line is visible in the provided material, so the clearest live signal remains the prediction market itself, where the current 0% YES framing for any single exact band would be inconsistent with a market that is still spread across multiple nearby Celsius outcomes.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.