Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s high on 24 July will be set by the warmest reading at Haneda Airport, and the market is pricing a zero per cent chance of the *YES* outcome despite midsummer conditions. That implies traders are treating a specific temperature band as extremely unlikely, rather than simply betting on a cool day; by contrast, current hourly conditions around 6:25 UTC show Tokyo at about 25°C with cloud cover and only a low precipitation chance, which is consistent with a warm but not yet extreme start to the day.[1][2]

The wider July climatology still points to heat risk: Tokyo’s July highs are commonly around 30°C, with substantial rain also typical in the month, so the main question is whether cloud, showers, or a sea-breeze pattern cap the afternoon peak below the contract’s target range.[2][3] In that sense, the zero per cent crowd price looks more conservative than a simple seasonal read would suggest, and it is the sort of setup where even a modest upward revision in the day’s forecast can matter more than the long-run average.

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning and early-afternoon forecast updates from mainstream weather services, especially any change to the expected high at Haneda and the timing of rain bands or clearing skies.[1][2] There are no market-moving official announcements here in the usual sense; the dependency is almost entirely on short-term meteorology, with the final settlement tied to the day’s highest observed temperature on the Wunderground Haneda history page.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.