Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the outcome determining settlement for a weather contract tracking degrees Celsius. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite historical mid-July highs in the region typically reaching 30°C or above.

Historical data for mid-July in Tokyo shows peak temperatures frequently landing between 33°C and 35°C, with 33°C appearing as the frontrunner on Polymarket at 40% implied probability and 34°C trailing at 28% [1]. This divergence suggests the 0% YES probability on this specific contract likely reflects a mismatched range definition rather than a belief that temperatures will be unusually low, as comparable cases from recent summers confirm consistent heat during this window [2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which publishes hourly highs for the Haneda station and will dictate the final settlement value [1]. No specific weather announcements are scheduled before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline, but the peak heating window between 11 AM and 6 PM local time remains the critical period for temperature spikes [2]. Cross-platform comparison reveals Polymarket’s active pricing on specific degree outcomes contrasts sharply with the binary 0% stance here, highlighting how range definitions drive implied probability divergence across platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.