Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and assigned to one of several temperature ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the precise Celsius reading determining which bracket resolves affirmatively. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting additional context or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification on the specific temperature bands offered.

Tokyo's July climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-July temperatures in Tokyo typically peak between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing toward 37–38°C. The summer of 2023 saw multiple days exceed 35°C in the capital, whilst 2022 recorded a 41.1°C peak in late July across Japan. These precedents establish that outcomes spanning 30–36°C ranges would capture the vast majority of plausible outcomes, though the absence of visible probability distribution across listed brackets may explain the flat 0% reading.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature extremes. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during that period would influence seasonal temperature patterns; current climate indices should be cross-referenced against historical analogues from comparable years. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, creating a hard deadline for Haneda Airport Station data availability on Weather Underground.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.