Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat today as the city monitors the highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport on 13 July 2026. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome, implying traders believe the event will not resolve within the defined ranges or that the specific conditions for a "YES" outcome are impossible under current definitions. This zero-implied probability stands in stark contrast to historical data, where mid-July highs in Tokyo regularly exceed 30°C, with recent years seeing peaks near 36°C to 40°C in surrounding areas.

Historical precedents frame this divergence sharply. Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Tamba City in late July 2025, while Tokyo Haneda typically sees daily highs between 29°C and 33°C in July, with forecasts for 2026 suggesting ranges up to 33°C [1][2][4]. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects a misunderstanding of the settlement mechanics or a belief that the temperature will fall outside all offered ranges, rather than an expectation of cold weather. On cross-platform comparison, sportsbooks rarely offer single-day temperature contracts, leaving prediction markets like Polymarket as the primary venue, yet the lack of liquidity here creates a disconnect from the physical reality of Tokyo’s summer climate.

Traders should watch the hourly updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, and monitor real-time feeds from the Japan Meteorological Agency for any extreme heat advisories issued today [4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final reading must be captured before noon. Recent thundery showers forecast for Haneda today could suppress peak temperatures, potentially keeping highs near 30°C, which may align with lower-range outcomes if the market structure allows [5]. No major announcements are pending, but the dependency on a single data point from Haneda Airport makes this contract highly sensitive to localized microclimate variations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.