Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s peak heat on 10 July 2026 hinges on the official reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, where July typically delivers highs between 26°C and 31°C. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for “YES” on any outcome below 26°C aligns with seasonal norms, as Haneda’s July average high sits near 29°C and extreme lows below 26°C are rare in midsummer [1][4].

Historical data frames this probability sharply: Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in late July 2025, while Tokyo itself saw 35°C or higher for ten consecutive days in a recent July, underscoring the region’s warming trend [7][9]. Comparable cases show that sub-26°C highs in mid-July at Haneda occur less than 5% of the time, making the 0% market pricing for low-temperature outcomes statistically consistent with long-term patterns [1][4].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecast updates and Wunderground’s real-time station data, as resolution depends entirely on the official JMA observation at Tokyo Haneda [2][3]. A recent Reuters report on Japan’s record heat confirms that extreme July temperatures are increasingly common, reinforcing the market’s tight clustering around 29–31°C as the most probable range [7]. With settlement ending 2026-07-10T12:00:00Z, any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation could alter the final reading, but current odds suggest minimal deviation from the 30°C frontrunner [2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.