Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 7 August is usually a late-summer heat-trader event, and the current 0% YES crowd price looks detached from the weather backdrop. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook has Tokyo daily highs around 88°F/31°C, while the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily table already shows Tokyo-area stations printing mid-30s Celsius at the start of the month, including Haneda at 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August[1][2]. That sits comfortably inside the contract’s likely payout bands and makes a sub-1% consensus hard to justify on a purely climatological read.

Comparable Tokyo August outcomes have tended to settle in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than at the extremes, which is consistent with the city’s humid peak-summer profile. Market listings on Zyntra currently cluster most heavily around 33°C, with 52% implied there and smaller weights on 32°C and 34°C, suggesting a far more normal distribution than the flat 0% YES on this venue[3]. Across broader travel and weather guides, Tokyo is repeatedly framed as a 30°C-plus city in August, with frequent spikes above that level[4][5]. The practical read is that the market is pricing far below both seasonal norms and peer-market expectations.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual observations from Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Weather Underground, because this contract settles off the “Daily Observations” table rather than the summary high/low line. The key dependency is therefore intraday reporting completeness and whether the station posts a late-afternoon maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is 21:00 JST. The JMA’s same-day Tokyo-area data and any official heat advisories are useful context, but the resolution source is the station record itself[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.