Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences in recorded extremes. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning afternoon temperature spikes in Tokyo's local time zone will be captured.

Tokyo's August temperatures have historically ranged between 32–38°C, with the city experiencing its record high of 41.1°C in July 2023. August typically sits slightly cooler than July, though heat waves remain common. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either pricing in confidence that temperatures will fall within a specific lower range, or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show divergent confidence levels depending on the specific temperature thresholds offered, indicating traders are calibrating differently across platforms.

Japan's Meteorological Agency has flagged August 2026 as potentially warmer than average owing to anticipated Pacific high-pressure systems. Recent patterns show Tokyo's Haneda station—located near Tokyo Bay—often records temperatures 1–2°C higher than central city measurements due to urban heat and proximity to water. Traders should monitor July 2026 temperature trends and any official seasonal forecasts released by the JMA in the months preceding the resolution date, as these will provide the most reliable signal for August conditions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.