Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by which temperature band contains that peak reading. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal engagement with this particular contract.

August temperatures in Tokyo typically peak between 32°C and 35°C, with historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing that mid-August readings rarely exceed 36°C at Haneda. The 0% probability across prediction markets indicates either that the market has already converged on a narrow range expectation, or that the contract's resolution mechanics—specifically the reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than the Day High & Low summary—have created friction that suppresses trading volume. Cross-platform comparison shows no meaningful divergence between Polymarket and Kalshi lines on comparable Tokyo temperature contracts, suggesting consensus pricing rather than arbitrage opportunity.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks that become increasingly reliable as August approaches. Pacific typhoon activity in early August could materially shift temperature expectations, as tropical systems occasionally suppress peak daytime temperatures through cloud cover and moisture. The specific reliance on Haneda Airport Station data—rather than central Tokyo urban stations—matters operationally, as airport locations often record slightly lower maxima than city-centre sites due to proximity to water and less urban heat island effect.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.