Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s highest temperature at Songshan Airport on 31 July is being priced against a backdrop of persistent heat: Focus Taiwan reported the city had already topped 36°C for a third straight day, with the Central Weather Administration issuing an orange heat advisory on Friday. That keeps the contract anchored to a genuinely hot baseline rather than a normal late-July profile, and it helps explain why the crowd-implied probability is still effectively at the extreme end of the distribution. The market is not asking whether Taipei is warm, but whether the day’s peak lands in the upper bands used by the contract’s settlement ranges; on the open web, comparable climate references put Taipei’s July highs broadly around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with occasional spikes into the upper 30s.

For cross-platform comparison, the divergence is meaningful: the crowd-implied 0% YES suggests the market is treating the threshold as unlikely, while the public weather picture argues for a materially warmer tail than that price implies. AccuWeather’s July outlook shows roughly 31°C for 31 July, but real-time advisories and today’s observed 36°C-plus readings are a stronger signal for intraday upside than a month-view average. Traders should watch for any afternoon convective rain, cloud cover, or a wind shift, because those are the main near-term factors that can cap the airport reading even on a very hot day; the resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history for Taipei Songshan Airport Station, so the final print depends on that station’s recorded maximum, not citywide averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.