Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The measurement will be sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific location, which serves as the official reference point for this contract.

Taipei's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 32–36°C range, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be displayed or treating this as a placeholder market pending full specification. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi typically see modest divergence in implied probabilities for temperature ranges, with sportsbook-style weather derivatives (traded on CME platforms) offering limited direct comparison for single-day city forecasts. Historical volatility in Taipei's summer highs—driven by monsoon patterns and urban heat effects—means the difference between a 34°C and 37°C outcome carries meaningful trading weight.

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration issues daily forecasts and heat warnings; traders should monitor their alerts for late June and early July 2026, as these will signal whether anomalous conditions are expected. Seasonal typhoon activity in the Western Pacific can suppress temperatures or create sudden spikes, making late-month meteorological bulletins critical inputs. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, which aligns with late evening in Taipei, allowing full capture of the day's peak temperature before resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.