Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is set to record its peak daily temperature for 13 July 2026, with the market betting on which Celsius range will contain that figure. The crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders overwhelmingly expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined by the contract, despite July being the hottest month locally with an average high of 33.5°C [1].

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a reaction to the station’s typical summer volatility rather than a prediction of cold weather. While August 14 averages 33.5°C, the lowest recorded high for that period was 26.8°C, indicating that even in peak summer, temperatures can dip significantly below the upper extremes [10]. The current 0% line likely reflects a mismatch between the contract’s specific threshold and the station’s historical ceiling, where days frequently hover around 30–33°C rather than breaching higher brackets that might trigger a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor real-time radar from Meteoblue and the Central Weather Administration, which currently forecast thunderstorms and moderate precipitation peaking at 37°C (97°F) for the afternoon [3]. The presence of 78% humidity and 91% cloud cover observed this morning acts as a natural cooling catalyst, potentially suppressing the daily maximum below the threshold required for a YES outcome [2]. With rain showers expected through 14:00 local time, the atmospheric conditions suggest a suppressed temperature curve that aligns with the market’s bearish stance on the specific range [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.