Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is currently experiencing heavy rain and typhoon conditions on 11 July 2026, with a maximum temperature forecast of just 29°C and 100% rain probability, directly explaining the 0% crowd-implied probability for any outcome exceeding this threshold. This immediate weather event overrides typical seasonal expectations, as the station’s July average high normally reaches 33°C (92°F), making the current cool, wet conditions a significant outlier for mid-summer [3][4].

Historical data from the same period shows July is consistently the hottest month, yet the 100% market consensus for 33°C on 10 July contrasts sharply with today’s 29°C ceiling, highlighting a dramatic inter-day divergence driven by the typhoon [2]. Traders comparing Polymarket’s leading 29°C outcome (31% probability) against Kalshi’s implied lines should note this sharp drop from yesterday’s peak, as the typhoon’s persistence is the primary variable determining settlement [1].

The critical catalyst to monitor is the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates, which currently report 12.0mm of rain in the hour and 93% relative humidity, confirming the typhoon’s active status [7]. No further announcements are scheduled before the 12:00Z settlement window, meaning the resolution hinges entirely on whether the rain system clears or intensifies, with Wunderground’s historical data serving as the definitive source for the final temperature reading [1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.