Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei's highest temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Songshan Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal liquidity in this particular contract.

August represents peak summer in Taipei, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32–35°C during this period. The Taiwan Central Weather Administration records show that extreme heat events exceeding 36°C occur sporadically but remain within the realm of possibility, particularly during heat waves driven by Pacific high-pressure systems. Comparable August days at Songshan Airport have occasionally breached 37°C, though such occurrences remain outliers rather than the norm. The 0% probability across prediction markets suggests the crowd has already settled on a narrow expected range, leaving minimal perceived probability mass in tail outcomes.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns in early August 2026, as these will determine whether monsoon influences or continental heat dominates conditions. The resolution methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—introduces a technical dependency worth noting; discrepancies between these datasets have occasionally created settlement disputes on weather contracts. No major meteorological announcements typically precede individual daily forecasts this far in advance, meaning the market's current pricing reflects baseline seasonal expectations rather than event-specific catalysts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.