Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 16 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on this particular contract. Cross-platform comparison shows Kalshi and Polymarket have not published competing odds on this specific date-location combination, suggesting limited liquidity and sparse trader interest relative to broader weather derivatives.

August temperatures in Taipei historically cluster between 32–36°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 37°C during the month. The 2025 August average high was 33.8°C; the previous five-year August range at Songshan Airport ran 32–35°C on most days, with outlier peaks near 37–38°C occurring roughly once per season during heat waves. Current market pricing at 0% implies traders expect the high to fall outside whichever range this contract covers, though the absence of published range thresholds in available documentation prevents precise assessment of whether this reflects genuine consensus or simply thin order books.

Taiwan's Central Weather Administration issues heat advisories when temperatures approach 36°C; any such alert issued in early August 2026 would signal elevated probability for higher-end outcomes. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and moisture, whilst sustained high-pressure systems typically drive peaks above 35°C. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's Daily Observations feed, making data-source reliability the critical dependency for traders seeking to arbitrage this contract against other weather platforms or historical analogues.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.