Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical climate data shows July in Singapore typically averages a high of 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C [1][2]. Recent records indicate the all-time peak for Singapore reached 37°C in Ang Mo Kio, matching a 40-year-old high [7][8]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature range is 0% YES, the market appears to be pricing in an extreme outlier or a data anomaly rather than a plausible meteorological event, as temperatures of 37°C at Changi are exceptionally rare compared to the Ang Mo Kio record.

Traders should monitor the Southwest Monsoon season forecasts and any official announcements from the Meteorological Service Singapore regarding heatwave conditions, as these directly influence temperature spikes [1]. Recent news confirms Singapore has already experienced record-breaking heat, with temperatures hitting 37°C earlier this year, suggesting the climate baseline is shifting warmer [7]. However, the settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, meaning any pre-settlement weather data from late June, such as the 91.1°F (32.8°C) peak recorded on 27 June 2026, could serve as a leading indicator [9]. The divergence between sportsbook lines on similar weather contracts and this prediction market’s 0% probability highlights a significant pricing inefficiency, where analysts may be underestimating the likelihood of a 35°C+ day at Changi despite the recent regional heat trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.