Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s Bao’an International Airport will record its peak temperature for 6 July 2026, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to the “YES” side. Historical data shows July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with average highs near 32°C and frequent readings exceeding 30°C, making a sub-31°C maximum highly improbable under normal conditions[1][3]. The market’s implied probability of 0% aligns with this climatic reality, yet it diverges sharply from some sportsbook-style lines on similar weather contracts that occasionally offer odds on cooler extremes, reflecting a more cautious analyst consensus elsewhere[5].

Traders should monitor incoming typhoon forecasts and subtropical high-pressure shifts, as these are the primary catalysts that could suppress temperatures below typical July peaks. Recent reports from China’s meteorological authorities note that southern regions have recorded unprecedented highs in recent years, but heavy rainfall and cloud cover from typhoons can temporarily lower daytime temperatures[6]. While Wunderground will provide the official resolution data, any sudden shift in the regional weather model—particularly if a typhoon approaches the Guangdong coast before 6 July—could invalidate the current zero-probability stance and create a meaningful arbitrage opportunity against prediction markets that ignore such dependencies[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.