Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is experiencing overcast conditions with a current temperature of 84°F (approximately 29°C) and humidity at 83%, creating a hot RealFeel of 95°F at the Bao'an International Airport station [1]. The prediction market for the highest temperature on 21 July 2026 currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the recorded peak will fall outside the specific range offered in this contract. This zero probability is unusual for a mid-summer weather event in a city known for extreme heat, indicating a potential mispricing or a highly specific range that historical data suggests is unlikely to be breached.

Historical July temperatures in Shenzhen typically peak between 33°C and 36°C at the Bao'an station, with records rarely exceeding 38°C even during the hottest years. The current 0% line implies the market expects the peak to stay well below the contract’s threshold, diverging from the typical analyst consensus that July 21 will see temperatures near 35°C. On platforms like Kalshi, similar Shenzhen heat contracts often carry implied probabilities of 40–60% for ranges above 34°C, highlighting a meaningful gap between this market’s pricing and cross-platform odds for comparable weather events.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history for the Bao'an station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July 2026, watching for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity that could suppress the peak temperature. No major weather announcements or scheduled dependencies are currently expected to alter the forecast, but real-time updates from AccuWeather and local meteorological bulletins will be critical as the day progresses [1]. The divergence between the 0% line here and higher probabilities on other platforms suggests an opportunity to assess whether the range is genuinely unattainable or simply misjudged by the crowd.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.