Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's maximum temperature on 19 July 2026 will be recorded at Bao'an International Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July is peak summer in Shenzhen, with the city situated in a subtropical climate zone where daytime highs routinely exceed 33°C during mid-summer months. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle up to that point.

Shenzhen's July temperatures have historically clustered between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the market may be pricing in an unusually narrow temperature band, or the available resolution ranges exclude outcomes traders consider plausible. Comparable July records from prior years at Bao'an show variability driven by monsoon patterns and tropical systems; the absence of meaningful divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds indicates limited cross-platform trading activity on this contract.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding 19 July, as any system tracking toward Guangdong Province could suppress daytime temperatures significantly. Real-time weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System will become increasingly reliable within ten days of the settlement date. Current atmospheric patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea remain the primary catalysts affecting outcome probabilities.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.