Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with Weather Underground's Daily Observations table serving as the authoritative source rather than the Day High & Low summary. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, creating a tight window for final temperature readings before resolution locks.

Shenzhen's August climate presents consistent patterns that historical data anchors well. Over the past decade, daily highs in mid-August have ranged between 32–35°C, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 36–37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability currently reflected suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about which specific temperature band the market offers. This divergence from typical August conditions warrants scrutiny; Shenzhen rarely experiences August highs below 30°C, making extreme cold scenarios statistically improbable.

Tropical cyclone activity and monsoon patterns represent the primary catalysts affecting August temperatures in the region. The Western Pacific typhoon season peaks during this period, and systems tracking towards southern China can suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. Conversely, high-pressure systems anchored over the South China Sea intensify heat. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and tropical cyclone tracking from late July onwards, as any organised systems developing in early August could materially shift temperature trajectories. Recent seasonal outlooks from the CMA indicated near-normal conditions for August 2026, offering limited indication of exceptional heat or cooling events.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.