Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces a sweltering July 9, 2026, as the city tracks its peak daily temperature at Pudong International Airport, with current overcast conditions and light showers already suppressing highs to around 24–28°C at nearby Hongqiao. The market’s 0% implied probability for any specific range suggests the crowd expects a definitive outcome outside the listed options, likely due to extreme heat pushing the record beyond standard brackets or a misalignment in how ranges are defined.

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs near 30°C and frequent spikes above 35°C under sunny skies, while recent years have seen peaks reach 35°C or higher at Pudong. However, today’s thundery showers and 84% humidity at Hongqiao indicate a cooler, cloudier pattern that may cap Pudong’s high below typical July extremes, creating a divergence between seasonal norms and current conditions.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official high at ZSPD, as well as National Weather Service time-series data showing light showers and temperatures hovering near 28°C by 10:00 am. Any sudden shift to clear skies or wind changes could rapidly alter the peak, making live weather feeds the primary catalyst for settlement. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather and BBC Weather confirm persistent cloud cover and precipitation, reinforcing the likelihood of a moderated high compared to dry, sunny July days.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.