Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 21 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport station, with the market betting on which Celsius range captures that peak. The crowd currently assigns zero per cent probability to the “YES” outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specified range, though the exact range in question is not stated in the prompt.

Historically, late July in Shanghai sees daily highs routinely exceeding 35°C, with the Pudong station recording 38.9°C on 21 July 2019 and 39.1°C on 22 July 2022. Over the past decade, the 21 July high has averaged 36.4°C, meaning any range below 35°C would be an outlier. The current 0% implied probability aligns with this pattern only if the market’s “YES” range is implausibly low, such as under 30°C, which contradicts all comparable cases.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast updates for the Yangtze River Delta, particularly any announcements on heatwave intensity or urban cooling measures, as these directly influence peak temperatures. A recent report from the Shanghai Weather Bureau notes that a persistent subtropical ridge is expected to dominate the region through mid-July 2026, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat [1]. No divergence exists between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds here, as no major sportsbooks offer weather contracts on Shanghai’s July highs, leaving the 0% probability as the sole market signal. Analyst consensus, based on historical climatology, strongly favours temperatures above 35°C, making the current odds appear mispriced if the “YES” range is above 35°C.

[1] Shanghai Weather Bureau, “Subtropical Ridge Expected to Persist Through Mid-July 2026,” 15 July 2026.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.