Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the market betting on the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to expectations of extreme heat exceeding typical thresholds or a specific range mismatch.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai routinely sees temperatures between 30°C and 35°C, with record highs occasionally reaching 38°C or more at coastal stations like Pudong. For instance, recent July days have shown Hongqiao Airport hitting 28°C early in the morning, but daytime peaks at Pudong often climb significantly higher under clear skies [1]. A 0% implied probability suggests the market expects the actual reading to be either far above or below the contract’s range, possibly anticipating a scorching day well beyond 35°C or an unusually cool spell due to monsoon rain.

Traders should monitor the hourly Wunderground feed for Pudong Airport as the day progresses, watching for real-time temperature spikes or sudden cloud cover from approaching rain systems. The settlement depends entirely on the single highest reading recorded by 12:00 UTC, making intraday volatility critical. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but local meteorological bulletins from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau could provide early warnings of heatwaves or typhoon influences that might shift the final reading.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.