Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s peak summer heat on 11 July 2026 will be measured at the Pudong International Airport station, where July is historically the hottest month with average highs near 31°C and frequent spikes to 35°C or higher [1][6]. The market’s current 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome—presumably betting on a specific temperature range—diverges sharply from climatic reality, as comparable years show daily maxima routinely exceeding 30°C at this site [1][6]. Sportsbooks covering extreme-heat events in East Asia typically assign meaningful odds to temperatures above 33°C in mid-July, suggesting the prediction-market line may be mispriced relative to both analyst consensus and historical frequency.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast updates for ZSPD, which currently show highs near 30–31°C with clear skies and light southerly winds, conditions that favour heat accumulation [3][8]. A key catalyst is the Thursday thunderstorm forecast from meteoblue, which could suppress temperatures if heavy precipitation (>0.8") occurs before the settlement window [5]. No official government heat announcements are scheduled, but local meteorological bulletins from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau often precede extreme-heat declarations; any such update would directly impact resolution. The Wunderground history page for ZSPD will be the sole settlement source, so real-time verification of the day’s peak reading is essential [market description].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.