Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 1 July 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, with settlement determined by Wunderground data. Recent ensemble forecasts for Shanghai around this date point to daytime maxima clustered near 27–28°C, a range consistent with current market-implied odds on Polymarket[1]. Historical climate data shows July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs at Pudong reaching 88°F (31.1°C), rarely falling below 75°F or exceeding 95°F[7]. The all-time high for Shanghai, recorded at the Xujiahui station, is 40.9°C, though airport readings typically remain lower due to location and exposure[3]. Summer highs regularly exceed 30°C, reaching 35°C during peak sunshine, framing why a 0% implied probability for “highest temperature” outcomes above 35°C is not surprising[9].

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the National Weather Service for Pudong, which provide real-time updates on temperature trends and potential anomalies[5]. A recent report noted China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, suggesting elevated baseline temperatures that could push daily maxima toward the upper forecast range[8]. While Polymarket currently assigns 77% probability to 26°C and 17% to 27°C, ensemble models suggest a slight divergence toward 27–28°C, indicating possible mispricing in the frontrunner line[1][2]. No major weather announcements are scheduled before 1 July, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the day’s peak temperature. The key dependency remains the reliability of Wunderground’s hourly data capture, which will be the sole resolution source for the market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.