Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 19 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The market currently shows zero crowd probability, suggesting traders are either awaiting historical data or treating this as an outlier event unlikely to occur within any defined range.

August temperatures in Shanghai typically peak between 32–36°C, with occasional readings exceeding 37°C during heat waves. Historical records from the China Meteorological Administration show that extreme heat events—those surpassing 38°C—occur roughly once every three to five years in the region. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets indicates either that all available ranges have been priced out as implausible, or that the market structure itself (perhaps with unusually wide temperature bands) has created a technical resolution issue. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket typically show non-zero probabilities for August Shanghai forecasts, suggesting this contract's current odds reflect data gaps rather than meteorological consensus.

The China Meteorological Administration issues monthly forecasts in early August, with updates tracking monsoon patterns and Pacific pressure systems that influence Shanghai's late-summer climate. El Niño or La Niña conditions, currently monitored by NOAA, can shift regional temperatures by 1–2°C. Traders should monitor mid-August weather model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS, as these typically converge within five days of the settlement date and may trigger repricing if extreme heat becomes probable.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.