Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the measurement of the peak temperature at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, a date that historically aligns with Seoul’s late-June climatology of highs near 28°C. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, yet this contradicts established seasonal norms. Historical data from Weather Spark confirms daily highs in Seoul during June typically rise from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, while AccuWeather’s 2026 forecast projects daily highs between 84° and 92°F, with an average of 90°F. This divergence between prediction-market odds and meteorological consensus is stark, especially when compared to cross-platform odds on similar weather contracts where sportsbooks often price in seasonal averages more conservatively.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, as the resolution hinges exclusively on this source’s highest recorded temperature for the day. Recent news from The Korea Herald highlights that June heat has already shattered records across 59 of 97 South Korean weather stations, indicating a trend of intensifying summer temperatures that could push Incheon’s reading above typical thresholds. The Korea Meteorological Administration also reported South Korea’s highest average summer temperature on record from June to August, reinforcing the likelihood of anomalous heat. Analysts tracking this contract must weigh these catalysts against the market’s current 0% pricing, which appears to ignore the documented escalation in regional heat. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, leaving little time for late adjustments if conditions shift.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.