Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, Seoul will record its official maximum temperature for the day, a single real-world data point that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to a 28°C hit. This stark divergence between the 0% implied probability on the platform and the 40.5% odds offered by competing lines like Lines.com highlights a significant pricing inefficiency. While sportsbooks and analyst consensus view early July climatology as centring firmly in the 28°C to 30°C band, the current market pricing suggests traders are ignoring historical averages in favour of an unfounded bearish sentiment on this specific degree.

Historical precedents frame this discrepancy, as early July in Seoul typically sees mean daily highs between 28°C and 30°C, with variance largely tied to the East Asian monsoon. Recent records show Seoul reaching 37.7°C in early July, the highest in 117 years, while the nation also endured its second-hottest July since 1973 with an average of 27.1°C. The market’s refusal to acknowledge that 28°C is the modal outcome, despite nine other competing temperature bands sharing the remaining probability, contradicts the Korea Meteorological Administration’s long-term data which consistently places this temperature as the most likely daily high for the period.

Traders must monitor short-range forecast updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration, as fresh capital has already entered the 28°C line following a 3.0% price spike tied to narrowing forecast models. The resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon International Airport Station, sourced from Wunderground, making any sudden shift in monsoon activity or cloud cover a critical catalyst. With the settlement window closing at noon Seoul time and volume remaining low at just $2,192, the market is highly sensitive to the next official forecast release, which could rapidly correct the current mispricing against the historical consensus.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.