Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer weather on 25 July 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records for the Incheon International Airport station, the official reference point for the city's meteorological data. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather archive, which aggregates readings from this station throughout the day to determine the single highest temperature recorded.

July represents the height of Seoul's monsoon season, with average daily highs typically ranging between 28–30°C, though extreme heat events regularly push readings above 33°C. The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or treating this as a placeholder contract pending clearer outcome definitions. Historical comparisons show that Seoul has recorded temperatures exceeding 37°C on multiple occasions during late July in recent decades—most notably 38.5°C in July 2018—indicating that higher temperature brackets remain meteorologically plausible rather than exceptional.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat-wave warnings as summer 2026 approaches. Atmospheric patterns affecting East Asia, particularly the positioning of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity, will influence whether conditions favour typical monsoon temperatures or anomalous heat. The settlement window closing at noon UTC on 25 July creates a practical constraint: traders must account for the fact that the highest daily temperature often occurs in early afternoon local time, meaning final readings will be available before market closure but with minimal time for adjustment.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.