Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 18 July 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station that day, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data in Celsius. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting baseline forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending typical July heat patterns for the region.

Mid-July temperatures in Seoul historically cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The Korea Meteorological Administration's 30-year climate normals show 18 July averaging a high of 29.2°C, though the record high for that specific date stands at 34.8°C (set in 2018). This historical range anchors expectations: markets pricing near-zero probability typically reflect either early-stage liquidity or traders waiting for seasonal forecasts closer to the settlement window. Comparable July markets on prediction platforms have seen probability shifts of 15–25 percentage points once meteorological agencies issue their mid-summer outlooks in June.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended-range forecasts issued in late May and early June, which typically signal whether the 2026 summer will track warmer or cooler than the 30-year mean. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift probabilities materially. Additionally, the timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset—typically occurring in early-to-mid June—influences whether atmospheric patterns favour heat accumulation by mid-July. Current zero probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than a fundamental assessment of Seoul's July thermal profile.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.