Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The prediction market currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the “YES” outcome, a figure that starkly contrasts with Polymarket’s frontrunner of 29°C holding 39% probability and 30°C at 35% [1]. This divergence suggests a significant disconnect between the binary contract’s pricing and the distributional view of temperature outcomes across the platform, where traders clearly expect heat rather than a null event.

Historical July data for Seoul typically sees maximums between 28°C and 33°C at Incheon, making a 29°C or 30°C peak the statistically probable range rather than an outlier. The 0% market price for the binary “YES” likely reflects a misaligned contract definition or a liquidity gap, as comparable weather events in recent years consistently breach lower thresholds. Traders comparing Polymarket’s granular odds against Kalshi’s binary structure should note that the latter’s zero probability contradicts the former’s clear consensus on mid-to-high 20s temperatures.

Key catalysts include the official Wunderground daily report for RKSI, which will settle the market at 12:00 UTC on 16 July. No weather announcements or forecast updates are expected to alter the physical outcome, as the event is already occurring. The sole dependency is the timely publication of the highest recorded temperature on the Wunderground history page, which will confirm whether the reading falls within the specified range. Any delay in data release could temporarily freeze settlement, but the temperature itself is determined by atmospheric conditions already in place.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.