Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and sorted into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows zero implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Resolution hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, with temperature converted to Celsius via the platform's settings toggle.

July temperatures in Seoul historically cluster between 28–33°C, with occasional peaks above 34°C during heat waves. The city experienced a 38.9°C reading in August 2018 and regularly sees mid-30s during peak summer. Mid-July typically sits in the warmer portion of the season but before the most intense heat-wave window of late July and August. Comparable years suggest the most likely outcome falls in the 30–35°C range, though extreme heat events have pushed readings higher. The current 0% probability across all brackets diverges sharply from historical frequency distributions and suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to reflect baseline seasonal expectations.

Traders should monitor South Korean meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly any warnings from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. Pacific typhoon activity in mid-summer can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula typically drive peaks. No major scheduled events or policy changes directly influence this outcome; the resolution depends entirely on observed atmospheric conditions on the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.