Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the settlement threshold. Historical data shows Seoul typically reaches 31–33°C on this date, though extreme early-July spikes have occurred, including a record 37.7°C in 2023—the hottest early July in 117 years[2][6].

Past heatwaves frame the current 0% implied probability as overly conservative. In July 2025, Seoul recorded 22 consecutive “tropical nights” with overnight temperatures above 25°C, signalling a warming trend that elevates peak-day risks[3]. The all-time national record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon further underscores how regional extremes can breach typical Seoul ranges[4]. While Polymarket’s leading outcome is 32°C at 39%, with 33°C at 31%, Kalshi shows divergent pricing, suggesting analysts may be underweighting late-summer heat acceleration[1].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave advisories and real-time Wunderground updates for Incheon, the designated resolution source[1]. A sudden shift in monsoon patterns or an incoming Pacific high-pressure ridge could trigger rapid temperature spikes. Recent coverage from Anadolu Ajansı highlights how South Korea’s July averages have climbed to 27.1°C, the second-hottest since 1973, reinforcing the need to track daily forecast revisions closely[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.