Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Seoul will face its peak daytime heat, a critical metric for weather prediction markets tracking the city’s summer extremes. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome for temperatures below 22°C, reflecting strong consensus that such cool conditions are implausible for mid-July in the region.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: July in Seoul typically sees highs between 27°C and 31°C, rarely dipping below 24°C [5]. Recent records underscore this trend, with Seoul hitting 37.7°C in early July 2023—the highest in 117 years [6]. A streak of 22 consecutive tropical nights above 25°C in 2024 further confirms that extreme heat is now routine, not anomalous [2]. The current frontrunner on Polymarket is 28°C at 36%, aligning with analyst expectations of a hot but not record-breaking day [1].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave forecasts and any updates on monsoon timing, which can suppress temperatures if rain arrives early [8]. A recent Anadolu Ajansı report noted South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973, suggesting elevated baseline heat for 2026 [8]. No major weather disruptions are scheduled, but sudden cloud cover or wind shifts could alter the peak. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, so real-time Wunderground data will be decisive [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.