Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s Incheon Airport station is the relevant observing point, and the market settles on the highest Celsius reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table for 9 August, not the Day High & Low summary. That distinction matters because a live hourly maximum can differ from the headline summary, and traders should anchor on the table value that is timestamped inside the settlement window. Polymarket is already pricing a fairly tight distribution, with the leading bands clustered around 33°C and 34°C, while the contract’s 0% yes crowd-implied probability suggests this market has not yet attracted much conviction despite the warm setup.[3]

Recent comparable cases point to a hot but not uniform late-summer pattern across South Korea. Reuters reported Seoul near 39°C on 6 August amid a severe heatwave, with the national record in Yangsan reaching 41.4°C on 31 July, showing the broader synoptic pattern has been capable of extreme readings.[7][19] At the same time, the current market is narrower than those headline events because it is about one station and one calendar day; recent forecast pages for Seoul still cluster around low-to-mid 30s Celsius for 9 August, which is consistent with the market’s main outcomes rather than an outlier above 37°C.[1][13]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates, local surface observations through the morning, and any late shift in cloud cover, showers, or wind direction that would cap the daily maximum.[6][13] The key practical dependency is whether the day warms quickly enough after sunrise to produce a 33–35°C peak before the official observation cutoff; once the first datapoint for 10 August appears, subsequent corrections are excluded under the contract rules.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.