Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 8 August will be judged against a late-summer baseline that is normally very warm in Seoul and the surrounding capital region. Seoul’s August climate averages sit around 29–30°C for daytime highs, and several climate summaries put the month’s record highs in the high 30s, so a result in the upper-20s or low-30s would be unremarkable, while anything above the mid-30s would look materially hot for the date.[2][14][17]

For context, the current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** sits well below what the broader weather profile would suggest for an August temperature contract, especially if the market’s settlement bands include common afternoon highs in the low 30s. The more relevant comparison is not with the calendar average alone but with airport-specific observations, because the market resolves off the **Daily Observations** table at Wunderground rather than the summary high/low box, which can occasionally differ.[13] Historical Seoul August data show a wide spread between ordinary warm days and heatwave outliers, so traders should treat any forecast shift in regional heat or thunderstorm timing as more important than the headline monthly average.[1][2]

The main catalysts are the day’s short-range forecast updates, cloud cover, and whether convection or rain arrives before the afternoon peak, since those factors can cap the airport’s maximum temperature even on a hot Seoul day.[1][5][7] In practice, the contract will move most when local forecasts or airport observations point to a clear break above or below the relevant Celsius band, and the final print will depend on the exact Wunderground daily-observation entry for Incheon, not the higher-level “Day High & Low” figure.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.